Awards Watch: Why this is 'one of the closest and most thrilling Oscar races ever'21 hours agoNicholas BarberGetty Images

The Baftas, which is often seen as a key indicator of where the Oscars are heading, left commentators none the wiser, paving the way for a tantalising finale to this year's awards season.

With less than two weeks to go until this year's Oscars, we've reached the stage where most of the results should be boringly easy to predict. Awards season gets going with the Golden Globes – held on 5 January this year – and in the weeks that follow there are so many prize-givings thrown by so many guilds and critics' associations that by the time the Oscars themselves roll around, they can seem anticlimactic. By then, everyone knows that Oppenheimer is going to win a stack of trophies, or that the best picture prize is a coin-flip between a couple of favourites – La La Land v Moonlight, Coda v The Power of the Dog – so what is there left to get excited about? Sometimes, the Oscars can feel like a round-up of all the preceding award ceremonies rather than a ceremony in itself.

The only surefire winners are the people who produce the Academy Awards, and the people who tune in to see them

Not this year. With several horses still neck and neck on the home stretch, this is one of the closest and most thrilling Oscar races ever. The odds keep changing, different awards bodies keep going in different directions, and pundits keep struggling to say with any confidence who the big winners are going to be. The Baftas sum up the glorious confusion. The British film industry's glitziest gala was held in London on Sunday evening, but the event, which is often seen as a key indicator of where the Oscars are heading, left commentators none the wiser.

Conclave won the prizes for best film, best British film, best adapted screenplay and best editing, so Edward Berger's exquisitely clever and well-crafted Vatican-set thriller, adapted from Robert Harris's novel, might seem to be a clear frontrunner at the Academy Awards. But the film's star, Ralph Fiennes, didn't win the best actor Bafta, an award for which he'd been widely tipped. Instead, the trophy went to Adrien Brody for The Brutalist – a film that also won Baftas for editing, score and director (Brady Corbet). Hmm. If the UK's voters were willing to honour Brody over Fiennes, a much-loved pillar of British cinema, should we be saying that the Oscar frontrunner is actually The Brutalist?

Well, maybe. But what about Anora? Sean Baker's dynamic anti-romantic comedy won best picture at the DGA, PGA, WGA and Critics Choice awards, so in the last week or two it has been nosing ahead of the competition. At the Baftas, it won prizes for best casting and best actress, and the latter prize, for Mikey Madison, seemed especially significant. Before Sunday, most commentators assumed that the Bafta would go to Demi Moore for The Substance, or Marianne Jean-Baptiste, the British star of Mike Leigh's Hard Truths, who hasn't even been nominated for an Oscar. But if the 25-year-old Madison can beat both of them, does that mean that she can beat Moore to the Oscar, despite Moore being the current favourite for best actress? Furthermore, does it mean that Anora itself now has the momentum to carry it all the way to the best picture prize? It's a narrative that seems almost convincing until you remember how many people expected Baker to win the best original screenplay Bafta for Anora, only for Jesse Eisenberg to nab it for A Real Pain.

More like this:

• 'Category fraud' is the latest Oscars scandal

• How true is The Brutalist?

• Mickey 17 is 'a serious disappointment'

One or two categories aren't so mystifying. Kieran Culkin won the best supporting actor Bafta for A Real Pain, having already won the Golden Globe among other awards, so he must have cleared some shelf space for his Oscar already. Meanwhile, Emilia Pérez won the Bafta for best film not in the English language, and its co-star, Zoe Saldaña, was named best supporting actress, so despite the calamitously bad publicity that Jacques Audiard's gangland musical has had during awards season, it is still in with a decent chance to win in those categories at the Oscars. It's probably no longer in the running for best picture, but James Mangold's Bob Dylan biopic, A Complete Unknown, has enough goodwill behind it to be a contender, and Timothée Chalamet could well beat Brody to the best actor prize. On the other hand, A Complete Unknown didn't win any Baftas at all, so... well, so it goes on.

Why is the race so tight? The main reason is that the list of best picture nominees is exceptionally strong this year, with an astonishing variety of excellent films. The only line-up to match it recently was last year's, but that brings us to reason two: Oppenheimer and Barbie were both commercial and critical smashes, whereas no film in the past 12 months has reached their level of all-conquering appeal. They all have their fans, but they all have their detractors, too. The only surefire winners are the people who produce the Academy Awards, and the people who tune in to see them. Never mind the speeches, the gaffes, and the song-and-dance numbers: for once, it's going to be the results which make the Oscars worth watching.

-- 

If you liked this story, sign up for The Essential List newsletter – a handpicked selection of features, videos and can't-miss news, delivered to your inbox twice a week.  

For more Culture stories from the BBC, follow us on Facebook, X and Instagram. 

Awards WatchBritish filmTelevisionOscars 2025News FeaturesWatchThe 2,000-year-old history of animal gift giving

Before panda diplomacy, there was elephant diplomacy. We spoke to a foreign affairs expert to find out more.

25 mins agoWorld of wonderHew Locke on why art is important in a fractious world

The renowned British sculptor challenges viewers to pause, reflect, and question his art.

20 hrs agoArts in MotionBosnia's 'war secret' that stopped Sarajevo from falling

BBC Travel presenter Rajan Datar explores a secret tunnel that protected citizens during the siege of Sarajevo.

24 hrs agoThe Travel ShowNothing brings more freedom than filmmaking, Jia Zhang-Ke

Renowned Chinese filmmaker Jia Zhang-Ke reflects on how he sees cinema as a space for freedom and rebellion.

1 day agoArts in MotionHow Anthony Mackie found out he was Captain America

The actor describes the moment Chris Evans revealed to him that he would be the next super hero.

2 days agoFilm & TVMarkets digest week of mounting tariffs - 14 Feb 2025

Expert says it's difficult for investors to discern what the best course of action is.

4 days agoOpening BellThe insulting 'Vinegar Valentine' of Victorian England

Valentine’s Day is thought to celebrate romance but rude cards soured the holiday for its recipients.

4 days agoHistoryJanuary inflation results higher than expected - 13 Feb 2025

US wholesale inflation rose more than expected in January, adding to inflation concerns.

5 days agoOpening BellInside Usonia: A 1940s utopian town in the United States

100-year-old Roland Reisley is the last original member of Usonia, a small visionary community in the woods.

5 days agoThe SpeciaListTracey Emin: 'Making art about rape and sex is important'

Tracey Emin, once the British art world's 'enfant terrible', talks art and life with the BBC.

5 days ago100 Women ExtraUS Fed 'unlikely to cut rates in short term' - 12 Feb 2025

Carol Schleif, Chief Strategist at BMO Private Wealth, says it's unlikely the Fed will cut interest rates soon.

6 days agoOpening BellTheory of Evolution: How did Charles Darwin come up with it?

The British naturalist embarked on an extraordinary journey, did hundreds of experiments, and wrote for 20 years.

6 days agoScienceTariffs 'unlikely to boost US metal industry' - 11 Feb 2025

Scott Lincicome at the US think tank Cato Institute says Trump's steel tariffs could hurt manufacturing.

7 days agoOpening BellWhy 'snowy' New York winters are a bit of a myth

While New York winters are often depicted as snowy wonderlands, the city's never been as snowy as you think.

7 days agoWeather & scienceMikey Madison on learning to pole dance for Anora

Mikey Madison tells Graham Norton that she spent five months pole dance training for her role in Anora.

7 days agoFilm & TVRichard III: The 'accidental' photo of a long-lost king

Why a famous photograph of King Richard III's skeleton was a happy 'accident'.

7 days agoHistoryMarket impact from steel tariffs 'muted' - 10 Feb 2025

Strategist says market impact is muted after steel tariffs, but investors are concerned about long-term effects.

8 days agoOpening BellThe intriguing history of Transylvania

Romania is the latest country to join Europe's Schengen Agreement, making travel across its borders much easier.

8 days agoAdventuresBenjamin Bernheim reveals the secret to captivating crowds

Opera star Benjamin Bernheim says as an artist you have to go to extremes to find out the right balance.

8 days agoArts in MotionErlitou: 'The capital of China's earliest dynasty'

The Erlitou site, dating back to 3,800 years ago, offers crucial insights into early Chinese civilisation.

7 Feb 2025ArchaeologyMore4 hrs agoNew series to pay homage to original, star says

Locations across Jersey and a red Triumph Roadster seen in the original series will be returning.

4 hrs agoJersey4 hrs agoQueen Vic pub joins EastEnders' 40th celebrations

The family of Lewis Bridgeman, who plays Barney Mitchell in the soap, are regulars at the venue.

4 hrs agoEssex15 hrs agoCatherine Zeta-Jones returns to Wales in new series

Catherine Zeta-Jones is to return to her hometown in Wales to star in a new Amazon Prime thriller.

15 hrs agoWales22 hrs agoTen best moments as stars mark 50 years of Saturday Night Live

The three-hour special featured Nirvana getting a new frontman and Sabrina Carpenter singing with a legend.

22 hrs agoCulture1 day agoBradford is star of new BBC TV thriller Virdee

The new crime drama showcases many city landmarks - as well as lesser known locations.

1 day agoEngland